Stock Alert

This stock alert was sent to members on May 5,2016


Stock Alert

Good Morning

You don’t have to be rocket scientist to know the IV delivered drug for the flu isn’t flying off the shelf. Nor do I expect it to magically start doing so.

But the main reason for the miss is this supposedly:

“revenues fell 29.4% year/year to $4.8 mln vs the $5.68 mln Capital IQ Consensus. The decrease in revenue was primarily due to lower collaborative revenue associated with BCX4430 development under the advanced development contract with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA/HHS) awarded in March 2015. Read more about BCX4430 here.

Here is the deal, BCRX has huge institutional support from one of the sharpest names in the biotech investment arena with Baker Bro and others.

Here is the main thesis of this investment,
BioCryst is very good, very very good at this one thing.
BioCryst may not be the best Bio out there in terms as drugs to market but know this,
They are GREAT at getting our government to give them money. I am not the only person that seems to know this either. Go look up the institutional names in this thing!!!
I don’t care if they get a drug to market anymore!
As long as they keep getting Government money who cares?

I also think we are due for another super bug scare.
Think about the news cycle, we havent really had one in a while other than Zika.
All it will take is some super flu news hitting or some other boogeyman super bug to hit the news and we will be off to the races. So while this one may take some time to pay off I am good with that. If it keeps falling I will add. My target will be to own 10k shares. So a move to $5.00 will net close to a double. If it falls to lows of $1.50 area I am prepared for that very unlikely event but would certainly buy more.

I would be willing to bet good money if we could peer into some big politicians brokerage statements we would see BCRX as a holding.
Richard Shelby comes to mind, as BCRX and UAB have a very close relationship.
How many buildings at UAB have Senator Shelby’s fingerprints on them?

Baker Bro has been in the name for as long as I have followed this stock which is since the IPO in 1994.
Yes, my age is showing.

BCRX is a stock you can easily have a love hate relationship.

BCRX is strange in the fact it always seems to be on the cusp of something big but in all these years it has only one drug to market.

The thing with BCRX and this may seem way over simplified is,
The stock always comes back!
Is that simple or what????

Sometimes it’s best not to overthink these things.
Sometimes the most simple methods are the best.
We may have to wait on BCRX but I am very confident in this trade. I may even add this trade to the 12 trades per year portfolio even though it is a biotech.

If you start reading about BCRX on message boards you are going to see all sorts of conspiracy theories, some which may even be true.

I’m not wild about the current CEO even though he personally returns my emails and will take my phone calls.

His last email to me was everything is fine, that was in January when the stock was above $8.00.
So much for fine huh?

With all that being said, this stock has in the past always bounced back. A move to above $3.00 from here is a very nice % gain.

So if you agree with this KISS method (Keep it SIMPLE Sammy) as we aren’t going to call anyone stupid.

Stay NimbleBCRX