BioCryst in the Best Shape Ever From an Investing View

BioCryst is in the best shape it has ever been.

  • The catalysts are not singular for BioCryst.
  • Risk reward is attractive.

 

The catalysts are not solely reliant on positive BCX 7353 results, BioCryst’s (BCRX) drug to treat HEREDITARY ANGIOEDEMA.

Although we expect the positive news before this year is complete we can take a look at other catalysts that could help.

Government stockpiles orders for its Flu drug Rapivab (Peramivir Injection).

Partnerships for upcoming drugs including BCX 4430, the company’s broad spectrum antiviral.

A buyout by a big pharma.

Domestic and worldwide Flu drug traction increase.

 

 

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The list goes on.

BioCryst has a strong government game. Evidence of this is present in the latest earning report and the follow-up Confidential Treatment Order recently granted. We do not know the mechanics of this order but one can speculate that more dollars are coming for things such as Bird Flu and other things not yet in the mainstream media news cycle.

has traded higher than the current price when we didn’t know the effectiveness of the HAE drug.

The company now has some cash coming in from royalties. For those long time shareholders, this is a big deal.

Management retained the rights to sell its Flu drug to the government which in my mind is not if a stockpile order, but when. I would not be surprised to see the media pick up on the “SuperBug” narrative soon as that news cycle hasn’t been played in a while.

While in more recent years has not really run on the hype of flu or Zika as it has in the past. But we know history does repeat itself.

The Government needs to get its sheeple focused on things other than the CIA and wiretaps. They need us focused on another boogeyman, like super bugs or superflu. I think this company will fare well without the hype. Although I cannot help but go back to 1999-2000 when this company ramped from $7.00 to over $33.00 creating a mother of all short squeezes.

The downside of things is obvious. They could totally blow the rest of the HAE trials. I think the odds are fair that they will not. They could dilute shareholders to raise funds. Odds are fair that they will. That may affect share price depending on the deal as it usually does for the short-term. But I have written this before, this company always seems to bounce back. With the pipeline looking promising it would make sense the recent strength in the way it has traded, others smarter than myself are taking notice and digging into this story.